The William R. Rhodes Center for International Economics and Finance

The United States’ unique economic advantages – deep financial markets, a strong institutional framework, and the world's dominant reserve currency – should not be mistaken for invincibility. In fact, markets are already pricing US policy uncertainty the same way they price that of countries that do not have a reserve currency.

In today’s interconnected global economy, tariffs produce outcomes that are very different from what traditional economic models would predict. Rather than causing only limited and temporary distortions, tariffs can generate persistent inflation, significant output losses, and damaging international spillovers.

The US Federal Reserve’s independence is widely understood to be vital to the economy’s well-being, by insulating monetary policy from political imperatives. But, following the launch of a criminal investigation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell by President Donald Trump’s minions at the Department of Justice, it is hanging on by a thread.

From attacks on the Federal Reserve's independence to high and unpredictable tariffs, Donald Trump has pursued a slew of misguided policies that threaten to fuel stagflation, trigger financial instability, and end US dollar dominance. Emerging-market and developing economies must take action to protect themselves.

Despite the Trump administration’s systematic erosion of America’s capacity to create wealth over the long term, bond markets and investors seem to have fallen asleep at the wheel. But their complacency is not the result of ignorance; it is a highly profitable – and extremely risky – choice.