This study examines how increased uncertainty about U.S. asset returns affects global asset prices and exchange rates in a two-country model with intermediary balance-sheet constraints.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has said the decision to leave interest rates unchanged wasn't a sign of inertia at the central bank, which is committed to tackling inflation. Brown University Professor of International Economics Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan breaks down how markets are interpreting the signals.

Europe is converging on a definition of economic security as reduced dependence – de-risking, reshoring, buying European. This column argues that the definition is mistaken. Three decades of evidence on financial and production networks shows that resilience is a property of a node’s position in the network – the depth, diversity, and quality of its connections – not of the number of connections it has severed for self-sufficiency. Applying this test to critical input supply chains such as energy and defense – with Turkey, the EU’s largest customs union partner, as the defining case – the author argues that Europe passes the initiative’s ‘Singapore test’ only if it treats integration depth, rather than self-sufficiency, as the union’s security variable.