Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has said the decision to leave interest rates unchanged wasn't a sign of inertia at the central bank, which is committed to tackling inflation. Brown University Professor of International Economics Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan breaks down how markets are interpreting the signals.

Europe is converging on a definition of economic security as reduced dependence – de-risking, reshoring, buying European. This column argues that the definition is mistaken. Three decades of evidence on financial and production networks shows that resilience is a property of a node’s position in the network – the depth, diversity, and quality of its connections – not of the number of connections it has severed for self-sufficiency. Applying this test to critical input supply chains such as energy and defense – with Turkey, the EU’s largest customs union partner, as the defining case – the author argues that Europe passes the initiative’s ‘Singapore test’ only if it treats integration depth, rather than self-sufficiency, as the union’s security variable.

Debates about geopolitical fragmentation always revive the late economist Robert Mundell’s dream of a single world money. But participants should be mindful of the euro’s real-world experience over the past quarter-century.

Access Professor Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan's written remarks on Financial and Trade Globalization, Its Future, and the Mundellian Vision and what can we learn from Mundell for staying resilient under geopolitical shocks here.

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What do geopolitically driven changes in global production, trade and finance networks imply for global demand and supply chains, monetary policy, inflation, and currencies? Does geopolitical or macroeconomic resilience give power to currencies and central bankers? Professor Şebnem Kalemli Özcan's research of last 6 years offers some answers to these difficult questions.