Chris Wellisz profiles Brown’s Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, who mines business-level data to explain global capital flows.

The core assumptions underlying the decades-old inflation-targeting orthodoxy have proven to be unfit for a geopolitically fragmented world characterized by frequent supply-side disruptions. Under such conditions, central banks' traditional monetary policies are only as effective as markets believe them to be.

The Great Game 3.0

When global uncertainty increases, emerging markets are typically the most exposed. Historically, tighter US monetary policy has led to capital outflows, currency depreciation, and tightening financial conditions in emerging markets. This column examines how domestic vulnerabilities shape the transmission of US monetary tightening across countries. It shows that many emerging markets avoided widespread financial crises over the 2022-2023 tightening cycle due to improved monetary policy credibility and reduced foreign-exchange vulnerabilities. In a world of rising uncertainty, stronger domestic institutions are among the most effective forms of economic insurance.

In today’s interconnected global economy, geopolitical shocks cascade through trade, production, and financial networks that were built for efficiency, not resilience. As disruptions hit critical supply chains, temporary price spikes can evolve into sustained inflationary pressures, raising the risk of stagflation.

While many Americans associate AI with mass layoffs and less satisfying work, an AI future that puts people first and supports workers is possible.

The Trump administration’s overt imperialism has unraveled the global order of shared norms and institutions faster than anyone expected. We now find ourselves at a juncture where everyone must either follow the US back into the jungle or refuse, leaving the America to its own devices.

The United States’ unique economic advantages – deep financial markets, a strong institutional framework, and the world's dominant reserve currency – should not be mistaken for invincibility. In fact, markets are already pricing US policy uncertainty the same way they price that of countries that do not have a reserve currency.

In today’s interconnected global economy, tariffs produce outcomes that are very different from what traditional economic models would predict. Rather than causing only limited and temporary distortions, tariffs can generate persistent inflation, significant output losses, and damaging international spillovers.

The traditional rhetoric of the World Economic Forum centered on global integration, climate change and international cooperation. Not anymore.

To ensure that Greenland remains a territory of Denmark, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and other European leaders must put pressure on NATO’s most powerful member. Given the US president’s love of royalty, one way to do that would be to organize a public meeting between British King Charles III and Danish King Frederik X.

If the Trump administration exerts more influence on the US central bank, global swap lines could become more politicized.

The US Federal Reserve’s independence is widely understood to be vital to the economy’s well-being, by insulating monetary policy from political imperatives. But, following the launch of a criminal investigation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell by President Donald Trump’s minions at the Department of Justice, it is hanging on by a thread.

The Justice Department has launched a criminal investigation against the Federal Reserve and its chairman. On this week’s On the Media, hear how the Trump administration’s pressure campaign plays into a larger trend chipping away at central banks. Plus, how a teacher in Russia stood up to Putin’s propaganda.

From attacks on the Federal Reserve's independence to high and unpredictable tariffs, Donald Trump has pursued a slew of misguided policies that threaten to fuel stagflation, trigger financial instability, and end US dollar dominance. Emerging-market and developing economies must take action to protect themselves.

The great Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter argued that you could spot a fundamental economic transition by the arrival of new types of goods, new production methods, and new forms of industrial organization. The spread of cheap drones, phones, and solar checks all of these boxes.

Mark Blyth told the A Book with Legs podcast that inflation reflects broad economic shifts driven by modern forces beyond rising prices, as discussed in his new book Inflation: A Guide for Users and Losers.

Despite the Trump administration’s systematic erosion of America’s capacity to create wealth over the long term, bond markets and investors seem to have fallen asleep at the wheel. But their complacency is not the result of ignorance; it is a highly profitable – and extremely risky – choice.

There is strong evidence to support the case for interest-rate cuts in the United States, given the disproportionate impact of higher rates on the most vulnerable. Yet with Donald Trump loudly demanding that the US Federal Reserve lower borrowing costs, the situation has become more complicated than it needed to be.

The short-term popularity of populist policies can help win elections even as they undermine long-term economic growth. Since this approach inevitably delivers bad economic outcomes over time, populist leaders need low interest rates to prevent their supporters from recognizing how misguided their policies are until it is too late.

The inflationary surge of the 1970s has long served as a cautionary tale, and that episode has shaped how central banks have carried out their mandates ever since. Two recent books revisit the standard narrative about that period in light of the 2021–23 inflation, offering sharply contrasting lessons for the future.

The Trump administration is doing everything it can to ensure that fossil fuels remain dominant in the energy mix of the twenty-first century. If it succeeds, the short-term returns to the US will be huge; but the long-term damage to the planet will be orders of magnitude larger.

Capitalism’s operating system is due for a major upgrade. How that turns out depends on enormously consequential political choices.