This study examines how increased uncertainty about U.S. asset returns affects global asset prices and exchange rates in a two-country model with intermediary balance-sheet constraints.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has said the decision to leave interest rates unchanged wasn't a sign of inertia at the central bank, which is committed to tackling inflation. Brown University Professor of International Economics Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan breaks down how markets are interpreting the signals.

Europe is converging on a definition of economic security as reduced dependence – de-risking, reshoring, buying European. This column argues that the definition is mistaken. Three decades of evidence on financial and production networks shows that resilience is a property of a node’s position in the network – the depth, diversity, and quality of its connections – not of the number of connections it has severed for self-sufficiency. Applying this test to critical input supply chains such as energy and defense – with Turkey, the EU’s largest customs union partner, as the defining case – the author argues that Europe passes the initiative’s ‘Singapore test’ only if it treats integration depth, rather than self-sufficiency, as the union’s security variable.

Debates about geopolitical fragmentation always revive the late economist Robert Mundell’s dream of a single world money. But participants should be mindful of the euro’s real-world experience over the past quarter-century.

Access Professor Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan's written remarks on Financial and Trade Globalization, Its Future, and the Mundellian Vision and what can we learn from Mundell for staying resilient under geopolitical shocks here.

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What do geopolitically driven changes in global production, trade and finance networks imply for global demand and supply chains, monetary policy, inflation, and currencies? Does geopolitical or macroeconomic resilience give power to currencies and central bankers? Professor Şebnem Kalemli Özcan's research of last 6 years offers some answers to these difficult questions.

Chris Wellisz profiles Brown’s Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, who mines business-level data to explain global capital flows.

The core assumptions underlying the decades-old inflation-targeting orthodoxy have proven to be unfit for a geopolitically fragmented world characterized by frequent supply-side disruptions. Under such conditions, central banks' traditional monetary policies are only as effective as markets believe them to be.

The Great Game 3.0

When global uncertainty increases, emerging markets are typically the most exposed. Historically, tighter US monetary policy has led to capital outflows, currency depreciation, and tightening financial conditions in emerging markets. This column examines how domestic vulnerabilities shape the transmission of US monetary tightening across countries. It shows that many emerging markets avoided widespread financial crises over the 2022-2023 tightening cycle due to improved monetary policy credibility and reduced foreign-exchange vulnerabilities. In a world of rising uncertainty, stronger domestic institutions are among the most effective forms of economic insurance.

In today’s interconnected global economy, geopolitical shocks cascade through trade, production, and financial networks that were built for efficiency, not resilience. As disruptions hit critical supply chains, temporary price spikes can evolve into sustained inflationary pressures, raising the risk of stagflation.

While many Americans associate AI with mass layoffs and less satisfying work, an AI future that puts people first and supports workers is possible.

The Trump administration’s overt imperialism has unraveled the global order of shared norms and institutions faster than anyone expected. We now find ourselves at a juncture where everyone must either follow the US back into the jungle or refuse, leaving the America to its own devices.

The United States’ unique economic advantages – deep financial markets, a strong institutional framework, and the world's dominant reserve currency – should not be mistaken for invincibility. In fact, markets are already pricing US policy uncertainty the same way they price that of countries that do not have a reserve currency.

In today’s interconnected global economy, tariffs produce outcomes that are very different from what traditional economic models would predict. Rather than causing only limited and temporary distortions, tariffs can generate persistent inflation, significant output losses, and damaging international spillovers.

The traditional rhetoric of the World Economic Forum centered on global integration, climate change and international cooperation. Not anymore.

To ensure that Greenland remains a territory of Denmark, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and other European leaders must put pressure on NATO’s most powerful member. Given the US president’s love of royalty, one way to do that would be to organize a public meeting between British King Charles III and Danish King Frederik X.

If the Trump administration exerts more influence on the US central bank, global swap lines could become more politicized.

The US Federal Reserve’s independence is widely understood to be vital to the economy’s well-being, by insulating monetary policy from political imperatives. But, following the launch of a criminal investigation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell by President Donald Trump’s minions at the Department of Justice, it is hanging on by a thread.

The Justice Department has launched a criminal investigation against the Federal Reserve and its chairman. On this week’s On the Media, hear how the Trump administration’s pressure campaign plays into a larger trend chipping away at central banks. Plus, how a teacher in Russia stood up to Putin’s propaganda.

From attacks on the Federal Reserve's independence to high and unpredictable tariffs, Donald Trump has pursued a slew of misguided policies that threaten to fuel stagflation, trigger financial instability, and end US dollar dominance. Emerging-market and developing economies must take action to protect themselves.

Effective July 1, 2026, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan will become director of the Watson School’s Rhodes Center for International Economics and Finance, taking over for long-time director Mark Blyth.