Ten years ago, trillions of dollars of advanced-economy government debt traded at a negative real interest rate. Deflation, not inflation, was the euro zone’s main problem, and central bank researchers wondered where all the inflation had gone. They found it again in Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine. Inflation had merely been dormant, not dead, we discovered. Now President Donald Trump’s tariffs augur still-higher prices.
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The William R. Rhodes Center for International Economics and Finance
Mark Blyth
Director, The William R. Rhodes Center for International Economics and Finance, The William R. Rhodes ’57 Professor of International Economics, Professor of Political Science and International and Public Affairs
Research Interests
International and comparative political economy, banks and finance, Europe, monetary policy
Biography
Mark Blyth is a political economist whose research focuses upon how uncertainty and randomness impact complex systems, particularly economic systems, and why people continue to believe stupid economic ideas despite buckets of evidence to the contrary. He is the author of several books, including Great Transformations: Economic Ideas and Institutional Change in the Twentieth Century (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 2002, Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea (Oxford University Press 2013, and The Future of the Euro (with Matthias Matthijs) (Oxford University Press 2015).
Recent News
The Political Scene Podcast
Donald Trump Gets a “Spanking” from the Bond Market (interview with Mark Blyth)
In an interview with The New Yorker’s The Political Scene podcast, Mark Blyth discussed how the bond market forced Donald Trump to retreat on some tariffs and the risks of the president’s escalating trade war with China.
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Mark Blyth discusses the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs.
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Project Syndicate
Trump, Tariffs, and the Fate of the Dollar (written by Mark Blyth)
Donald Trump’s attempt to reindustrialize the US economy by eliminating trade deficits will undoubtedly cause pain and disruption on a massive scale. But it is important to remember that both major US political parties have abandoned free trade in pursuit of similar goals.
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Mark Blyth discusses what will happen in the short and long term if the U.S. economy goes into recession due to the Trump administration's attempt to produce a "once-in-a-generation shift in how we run the global economy."
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WNYC On the Media (podcast)
Trump’s On-and-Off-Again Tariffs (interview with Mark Blyth)
President Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff announcements sent stock markets plunging. On the Media interviews Mark Blyth to make sense of the ever-changing news about the economy.
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