The Trump administration’s overt imperialism has unraveled the global order of shared norms and institutions faster than anyone expected. We now find ourselves at a juncture where everyone must either follow the US back into the jungle or refuse, leaving the America to its own devices.

The United States’ unique economic advantages – deep financial markets, a strong institutional framework, and the world's dominant reserve currency – should not be mistaken for invincibility. In fact, markets are already pricing US policy uncertainty the same way they price that of countries that do not have a reserve currency.

In today’s interconnected global economy, tariffs produce outcomes that are very different from what traditional economic models would predict. Rather than causing only limited and temporary distortions, tariffs can generate persistent inflation, significant output losses, and damaging international spillovers.